Belichick was not wrong.
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick made the controversial call to go for it on 4th and 2 with the lead, deep in Indianapolis territory, with only a little over two minutes left. He was not wrong.
Yes, this decision led directly to a 35-34 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, but he was not wrong. He was not right, but he wasn’t so horrendously in the wrong that he needs to check to see if his hoodie is cutting off circulation to his brain, either.
In the situation Belichick was in, there was no ‘right’ call. Each decision had its benefits and its punishments. If the Patriots had punted the ball, Peyton Manning still gets the ball back. Instead of driving 30-or-so yards, Peyton could just drive 70 yards and get the same result.
On the other hand, the Colts would be deep in their own territory. They would have timeouts to work with, sure, but the field is significantly longer for the Colts. New England’s veteran defense perhaps could have made the play on the best quarterback in the game.
Read that last part again. “The best quarterback in the game.” This is exactly why New England did not punt the ball. Belichick assumed that, no matter what the size of the field, Manning could score again. Belichick had already been burned by one Manning and he did not want to make it a second. He wanted to make sure Peyton Manning never got the ball back.
It was a risky move to be sure. In the NFL there is a lot of difference between 30 yards and 70 yards. I figure Belichick knew if he failed to convert the Patriots would surely lose. There was no way Manning would be given that short field and not score, but in his mind the risk was worth the reward.
Why? Well, look at who he has on his offense. Manning is considered by many to be the best quarterback in the game, but he very well may just be 1A to New England’s quarterback Tom Brady. Brady has won a number of games for the Patriots and is the un-questioned leader of the team. He is considered by many to be the Joe Montana of this generation. If you had Montana on your team, would you go for it on 4th and 2?
With Brady also comes his core of receivers. Randy Moss, one of the best receivers in the game. Wes Welker, a guy who has made a myriad of big game catches for the Patriots. Benjamin Watson, a tight end who knows how to catch. As San Francisco’s Alex Smith can attest, a tight end who can catch is a very valuable commodity.
With those weapons on offense, the Patriots were more than capable of getting two yards. It wasn’t like it was 4th and 10, this was just two yards! Belichick’s mind had to be thinking: “Well, if we don’t get those two yards I guess we don’t deserve to win.”
Then there was the play. To me, it looked like the Patriots got the yardage needed to convert. Unless my eyesight is worse than Sammy Sosa’s English, every replay I saw seemed to show the Patriots having possession beyond that little red line.
This is where the biggest con of going for it on 4th in that situation comes in. Belichick had used all of his timeouts. When you run out of timeouts, you cannot challenge the ball. There was no way he could have known that the play would be so close, but that is still something he had to process.
Taking all things into consideration, it is hard to call Belichick’s decision wrong. There were too many things going in his favor and the Patriots had a chance to put the Colts away. There were a lot of risks involved too, so it’s hard to say he was right.
It was a judgment call. It took a lot of guts to call, so a lot of people would not have called it themselves and thus call it wrong. That does not make it wrong.
